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Weather

Accurate information about the weather is essential to gardeners and growers.  At Ashwood we are extremely fortunate to have our own amateur meteorologist who provides us with extremely reliable weather guidance based on various sources. Whilst we can’t take any responsibility for their accuracy or content, we hope you will enjoy sharing this guidance.  (Updated every Monday : Latest Update 06 02 ) 

Winter digging its heels in through this week, may be around for quite a while ……

Video Forecasts available from the professional  meteorological forecasters at Weatherweb.net (premium subscription site) click here  or For a ‘Farmers and Growers’ (updated twice a week) weather forecast click here.


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Satellite and synoptic weather 06021  …..mainly cloudy across the bulk of the UK as a frontal system trundles its way across from the west carrying its associated rain and strengthening winds with it……

06weatherimage1A cold and frosty start to the day, cloud and rain through western areas extending eastwards through the day…….over higher ground of Wales northern England and Scotland this is likely to fall as snow…….gales and strong winds through western and northwestern Britain extending east and northwards through the evening as the front clears it turns chilly once more with perhaps wintry showers to higher elevations……..

06weatherimage2The Week Ahead…..As a frontal system stalls to the east, colder air advances as this weakening feature returns westwards……the coming week will see colder conditions returning from the east as an initially eastward moving frontal systems stalls over eastern coastal areas and then returns westwards as a weakening feature, behind this though a strengthening easterly flow will feed in one or two areas of wintry showers and it’ll be feeling much colder everywhere by the end of the week accentuated by the brisk wind…….

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Surface pressure / rainfall and the North Atlantic Jet Stream for the next few days   (GFS 06 02 17) Courtesy of weatherweb.net


06weatherimage806weatherimage1330weatherimage26TEMPERATURE (Min and Max) 

Temperatures taking a tumble through this week and there they remain for quite a while, some projections into early March see it rather chilly and wintry……

 

 

 

 

 06weatherimage1406weatherimage1506weatherimage16Rainfall indications

……..the forecast charts indicate a rather more settled regime establishing through the short term……

Further Ahead (10 days) : The US Weather Agency…National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA for short) produces reliable weekly forecast for many levels within the upper atmosphere, including the 500mb level which represents the airflow conditions within the mid- troposphere. The 500mb (500 millibars) level has a variable but average altitude of approximately 5,500 meters (18,000ft), this level is often used to represent upper level flow conditions because this is the level within the lower atmosphere which is deemed to be well above any effects of surface topography and associated friction and is the level which is below the region within the upper troposphere where the air flow may experience strong accelerations and deceleration when in the vicinity of the upper jet streams. Since many weather systems tend to follow the wind flow at this level, this level is often considered to symbolize the steering level of these systems.

How to interpret the charts below: When using these charts for ‘forecasting’ weather conditions at the surface, you generally look for the trends for this 500mb level for higher or lower than normal ‘height anomalies’ and are represented here as either lower than normal in blues and green hues or higher than normal as oranges and red colours. These charts are invaluable as indicators as to whether conditions are likely to be influenced by high or low pressure at the surface and indicates the expected positioning of the jet stream, this as we are all well aware determines the tracks of low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic towards the UK and the persistence and movement of of high pressure cells. These charts are good indicators, but are only that, an indication of what may happen….viewed daily they become useful in determining future trends, (the UK can be seen in the lower central half of each chart).

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ECMWF  (European), GFS (US) and CMC (Canadian) 500mb 8-10 day mean forecast(Penn State charts)  ……a weakening Atlantic jet stream is indicated, so potentially settled weather ahead…….

06weatherimage2006weatherimage2106weatherimage22CFSv2 For the month ahead: (ENCEP /NOAA) The CFS sees a higher pressure firmly entrenched to the northeast and north all the way through until the beginning ofMarch…….

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly NOAA.….theLa Nina perhaps weakening in the Pacific, the northern zone having some cooled markedly, the western north Atlantic cool………Temperatures above 80N……..Temperatures remaining well below zero…….

06weatherimage2306weatherimage25 Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only differing kinds of good weather.